Desember 2015

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          Apabila UIN Jakarta tidak mempunyai "farsighted" dan berpuas diri dengan apa yang dipunyai saat ini, maka universitas kebanggaan muslim ini hanya menghasilkan lulusan-lulusan pemikir konvensional dan kemampuan usang yang tidak terpakai di kehidupan sesungguhnya.  Terlebih di zaman MEA ini, banyak perusahaan yang menetapkan peraturan bahwa mereka hanya menerima tenaga kerja yang berasal dari lulusan universitas yang telah memenuhi kriteria <i>World Class University</i> . Maka jika begitu,  UIN Jakarta akan semakin ditinggalkan, diacuhkan bahkan dianggap tidak ada oleh industri-industri kapitalis. Lalu, mau dikemanakan lulusan-lulusan berpeci ini?</div>
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        Menyadari hal tersebut, pihak rektorat UIN Jakarta langsung mencanangkan Visi World Class University  sebagai bentuk respon dari semakin kompetitifnya iklim bisnis 
dan ketatnya persaingan industri pasar tenaga kerja. </div>
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        Tetapi apa daya, minimnya peran nyata dari dosen UIN Jakarta sebagai tenaga pengajar yang bertugas meningkatkan kualitas pembelajaran dan juga minimnya daya minat mahasiswa untuk meningkatkan keilmuannya membuat WCU hanya menjadi angan-angan lamunan.</div>
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       Namun dari kekurangan-kekurangan tersebut, terdapat setitik harapan akan pencapaian WCU. Hal ini dikarenakan adanya salah satu dosen yang telah memenuhi kriteria WCU tersebut. Nadratuzzaman Hossein namanya. Beliau adalah dosen Ilmu Statistika, Metodologi Penelitian dan Ekonometrika di Program Studi Perbankan Syariah UIN Jakarta.</div>
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         Di saat dosen lain mengajar hanya melunturkan kewajibannya, menghambur-hamburkan nilai A kepada mahasiswanya, memberi kemudahan dan belaskasih terlalu banyak yang menyebabkan mahasiswa malas berpikir untuk meningkatkan kemampuan keilmuannya. Beliau justru membuat mahasiswa tidak pernah nyaman santai dengan memberikan tugas-tugas njlimet yang harus dikerjakan <i>in order and on time</i>. Tidak ada toleransi sama sekali yang diberikan kepada mahasiswa yang tidak mengerjakan tugasnya.</div>
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        Selain itu, beliau juga selalu memberikan tugas yang berhubungan langsung dengan dunia kerja. Seperti tugas membuat paper analisis permintaan dan penawaran dengan menggunakan model Regresi Sederhana, Koyck, Partial Adjusment, Adaptif, Almon, dan AIDS Model terhadap berbagai permasalahan kasus ekonomi bisnis yang sedang terjadi.</div>
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       Kriteria lainnya yang telah dipenuhi oleh Pak Nadra adalah keobjektifannya dalam memberikan nilai. Hanya segelintir mahasiswa yang mampu mendapat nilai A atau B, selebihnya dan kebanyakannya mahasiswa mendapat nilai C dan D, bahkan E</div>
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       Dalam pengajaran pun Pak Nadra lebih senang berdiskusi dengan mahasiswanya. Beliau hanya mengajarkan pengenalan dan penggunaan suatu model ekonmetrika, selebihnya beliau mengajar hanya jika ada mahasiswa yang bertanya padanya. Metode pengajaran ini sangat mirip seperti yang diterapkan kebanyakan dosen di Universitas UK. Dosen mengajarkan keilmuan apabila ada mahasiswa yang menanyakan suatu kasus atau kondisi yang mahasiswa tersebut alami sendiri di dunia bisnis.</div>
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       Demikian tulisan singkat tak beraturan sebagai bentuk sambutan kepada teman-teman yang telah mengunjungi blog ini untuk meningkatkan pemahaman dan kemampuan keilmuan.</div>
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Oke. Kita mulai dari penjelasan Partial Adjusment Model yaa.</div>
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Apa itu Partial Adjustment? </div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: IN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Suatu cara untuk merasionalisasikan model koyck.
Model penyesuaian ini mengacu pada model percepatan
fleksibel dari teori ekonomi yang mengasumsikan bahwa ada jumlah keseimbangan
optimal diinginkan atau jangka panjang yang diperlukan untuk memproduksi hasil
(output) tertentu dalam keadaan teknologi tertentu, tingkat tertentu dan
seterusnya. </span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: IN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">Untuk apa model ini digunakan?</span></div>
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<i><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Model ini digunakan untuk menganalisis penawaran ketika terjadi ketidakpastian (mengenai tingkat harga, tingkat bunga, dan seterusnya untuk
masa yang akan datang),  dan juga
kekakuan yang bersifat kelambanan, biaya perubahan (cost change) dan seterusnya
yang bersifat tekhnis atau kelembagaan (Gujarati, 1997:242-243).</span></i> </div>
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<i>Model ini juga digunakan untuk mengetahui
parameter dalam jangka pendek yang merupakan suatu periode dimana semua
variabel independen belum menyesuaikan secara penuh terhadap perubahan variabel
dependen serta dalam jangka panjang dimana suatu periode yang memungkinkan mengadakan
penyesuaian penuh untuk setiap perubahan yang timbul. </i></div>
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<i> </i>

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 Bagaimana menggunakan model ini? </div>
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Untuk menerapkan model ini, teman-teman harus mempunyai software eviews atau lainnya yang sejenis serta data variabel penawaran. Inilah tahapan yang harus dijalani:</div>
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<li>Data variabel penawaran diketik terlebih dahulu dalam bentuk series di excel dan simpan datanya.</li>
<li>Buka eviewsnya, klik File - import - import file - pilih data yang tadi sudah disimpan</li>
<li> Ketika data tadi sudah muncul di eviews, klik lanjut - pilih data regularly frequency</li>
<li>Edit data tersebut apabila diperlukan dengan mengeklik dua kali variabel yang akan diubah</li>
<li>Kemudian masuk dalam tahap pemrosesan data, yaitu dengan klik quick - equation estimation</li>
<li>Setelah itu, masukkan rumus seperti ini di kolom equation specification, Y C V1 V2 V3Y(-1) lalu klik OK. INGAT Ya! Y adalah dependen, sedangkan V adalah independent.</li>
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Contohnya  seperti ini,<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">I.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">    
</span></span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">HASIL
DAN PEMBAHASAN</span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">   
</span></span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Penaksiran
Partial Adjustment Model</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Dengan mengasumsikan bahwa Vt telah memenuhi semua
asumsi klasik yang berkenaan dengan faktor gangguan. Maka hasil analisis ini
menjadi:</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Dependent
  Variable: PDS</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Method:
  Least Squares</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Date:
  12/10/15<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">   </span>Time: 21:28</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Sample
  (adjusted): 1981 2010</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Included
  observations: 30 after adjustments</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Variable</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Coefficient</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Std.
  Error</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">t-Statistic</span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Prob.  </span></div>
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</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-irow: 9;">
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 10;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">C</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">202963.4</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">53712.31</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">3.778714</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">0.0009</span></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 11;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">HDS</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">4.516105</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">5.482539</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">0.823725</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">0.4179</span></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 12;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">HDA</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">-16.75233</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">9.480427</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">-1.767044</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">0.0894</span></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 13;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">HPK</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">111.0177</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">92.04489</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">1.206125</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">0.2391</span></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 14;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">PDS(-1)</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">0.332156</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">0.171069</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">1.941645</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">0.0635</span></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-irow: 15;">
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-irow: 16;">
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 17;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">R-squared</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">0.495794</span></div>
</td>
  <td colspan="2" style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 120.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="161">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">    Mean
  dependent var</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">322576.7</span></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 18;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Adjusted
  R-squared</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">0.415121</span></div>
</td>
  <td colspan="2" style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 120.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="161">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">    S.D.
  dependent var</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">84060.61</span></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 19;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">S.E.
  of regression</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">64287.36</span></div>
</td>
  <td colspan="2" style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 120.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="161">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">    Akaike
  info criterion</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">25.13113</span></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 20;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Sum
  squared resid</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">1.03E+11</span></div>
</td>
  <td colspan="2" style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 120.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="161">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">    Schwarz
  criterion</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">25.36466</span></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 21;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Log
  likelihood</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">-371.9669</span></div>
</td>
  <td colspan="2" style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 120.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="161">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">    Hannan-Quinn
  criter.</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">25.20583</span></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 22;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">F-statistic</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">6.145722</span></div>
</td>
  <td colspan="2" style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 120.75pt;" valign="bottom" width="161">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">    Durbin-Watson
  stat</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">2.373950</span></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 11.25pt; mso-yfti-irow: 23;">
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Prob(F-statistic)</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: black; font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">0.001380</span></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 11.25pt; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 0cm; margin-right: .5pt; margin-top: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-irow: 24;">
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="border-bottom: double windowtext 2.25pt; border: none; height: 4.5pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
 </tr>
<tr style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-yfti-irow: 25; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 100.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="134">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 55.15pt;" valign="bottom" width="74">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.35pt;" valign="bottom" width="80">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 60.4pt;" valign="bottom" width="81">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
  <td style="height: 6.75pt; mso-height-rule: exactly; padding: 0cm 0cm 0cm 0cm; width: 49.85pt;" valign="bottom" width="66">
  <div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
</td>
 </tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 35.45pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 14.2pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 35.45pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Berdasarkan hasil
regresi dengan metode pendekatan PAM (Partial Adjusment Model), maka model
ekonometrika yang dihasilkan dalam jangka pendek, yaitu sebagai berikut : </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 35.45pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 14.2pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 35.45pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">PDS
= ß0 + ß1 HDS + ß2 HDA + ß3 HPK + ß4 PDS(t-1) + e </span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 35.45pt;">
<br /></div>
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: IN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-latin;">PDS = 202963,4 + 4,516105 HDA – 16,75233 HDA +
111,0177 HPK + 0.332156 PDS(t-1) + e</span></b></div>
<div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
Nah hasil di atas merupakan perkiraan jangka pendek, maka untuk mengetahui perkiraan jangka panjang, kita harus memasukkan rumus model PAM seperti ini </div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">

</div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -21.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">        
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nilai konstanta = β0 / (1 – β4) </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">C=202963,4/(1−0,332156)=
303908,39777</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Berdasarkan
hasil perhitungan diatas maka diperoleh nilai koefisien dalam jangka panjang
yaitu 303908,39777 artinya dalam jangka panjang ketika semua variabel
independen dianggap konstan (cateris paribus) maka produksi daging sapi sebesar
303908,39777 %. Angka koefisien konstanta yang sangat tinggi menunjukkan
ketidaksesuaiannya terhadap logika ekonomi.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -21.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">b.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">        
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nilai koefisien HDS </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">HDS
= β1 / (1 – β4) </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">HDS
= 4,516105 (1−0,332156)= 6,7622154276 </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-indent: 14.15pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -21.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">c.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">        
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nilai koefisien HDA </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">HDA
= β2 / (1 – β4) </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">HDA
= -16,75233 (1−0,332156)= -25,084196309</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-indent: 14.15pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-indent: 14.15pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level2 lfo1; text-indent: -21.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">d.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">       
</span></span></span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nilai koefisien HPK </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">HPK
= β3 / (1 – β4) </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">HPK
=111,0177 (1−0,332156)= 166,232982553 </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Berdasarkan hasil regresi dengan metode pendekatan
PAM (Partial Adjusment Model), maka model ekonometrika dalam jangka panjang
tanpa memasukan variabel PDSt-1, yaitu sebagai berikut :</span>

<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 70.9pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">PDS
= ß0 + ß1 HDS + ß2 HDA + ß3 HPK + e</span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman","serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">PDS
= 303908,39777 + 6,7622154276 HDS - 25,084196309 HDA + 166,232982553 HPK + e</span></b><br />
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Selesai. Selamat Mengerjakan. Untuk yang sudah menghubungi dalam beberapa hari belakangan ini untuk menanyakan tugas ekonometrika, mohon maaf saya slow respond dikarenakan signal dan isi hati sedang enggak karuan aiih wkwkwk. Lagi fokus bikin laporan dan pptnya soalnya :D</div>
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Menggunakan Eviews Untuk Memodelkan Penawaran Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang (Partial Adjustment Model)

Apabila UIN Jakarta tidak mempunyai "farsighted" dan berpuas diri dengan apa yang dipunyai saat ini, maka universitas...

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