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Transjakarta Syariah

Transjakarta Syariah

Ceritanya lagi pulang naik bus transjakarta dan kebetulan lagi make jaket perbankan syariah UIN Jakarta. Tiba-tiba ada gadis yang lebih mud...

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06.41

Islamic banking: Growing fast but can it be more than a niche market?

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<div class="story-body__introduction">
For years, Islamic banks have been growing at a double digit pace. </div>
Ernst
 and Young (E&Y), in their latest World Islamic Banking 
Competitiveness report, shows the assets of Islamic banks grew at an 
average rate of 17% per year between 2008 and 2012. <br />
This is two 
to three times faster than the rate at which conventional banks grew 
over the same period, due in part to the global financial crisis.<br />
Islamic
 banks differ because they have to run their operations in a way that is
 consistent with the principles of Islamic law or sharia.<br />
This 
prohibits banks from dealing with businesses that are considered sinful 
or haraam such as pork, alcohol and gambling. Admittedly, this is not 
much of a constraint.<br />
However, usury or riba is also prohibited 
under sharia law so in principle banks cannot charge fees or interest 
for money lending. <br />
<strong>How it works</strong><br />
Given this is how banks generally make their money, you may ask how Islamic banks prosper? <br />
The answer is they still make money by lending out their capital but do so in ways where interest and fees are not explicit.<br />
For
 instance, Mudharabah is a profit sharing arrangement like a venture 
capital deal where the bank provides the finance and the borrower the 
labour and entrepreneurship.<br />
If the business were to fail, the lender loses their money and the borrower the time and effort committed to the enterprise.<br />
Similarly,
 Musharakah describes a joint venture between a bank and business where 
the profits are divided according to their relative capital inputs.<br />
In this way, bank returns are tied to company profits and the partnership ends when the loan is repaid.<br />
This
 approach could be used to provide mortgage financing to buy a property.
 The property earns rent from the occupier which is paid to the buyer 
and the bank in relation to their share of the equity. <br />
At the 
same time, the buyer agrees to buy the bank's share in instalment 
payments, so over time their equity increases and the bank's falls, 
until the mortgage principal is paid off.<br />
Another way of profiting from providing credit is a simple form of sale and buy-back agreement known as Murubahah. <br />
Here,
 the bank buys the house, car or other commodity and sells it to the 
buyer at a profit but allows them to pay in instalments. <br />
In this case, the profit margin should be clear, agreed upfront and be reflect the bank's costs in providing the service.<br />
<strong>Fast growth explained</strong><br />
It is partly because economic growth has been strong in several emerging market countries with a large Muslim population.<br />
E&Y
 identify 25 "rapid growth market" countries which they predict will 
account for half of global GDP by 2020. Of these, 10 have a high Muslim 
population.<br />
Iran accounts for nearly half of the banking assets in Islamic banks worldwide. <br />
Three-quarters
 of the rest is in the QISMUT nations [Qatar, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, 
Malaysia, UAE and Turkey] where growth has averaged 6.5% per year for 
the last five years.<br />
The rapid expansion of Islamic banking has 
been mainly through Islamic windows in conventional banks rather than in
 pure Islamic banks. <br />
This has allowed existing banks to easily 
enter the Islamic banking market and is likely to continue being a 
mechanism for growth for the foreseeable future.<br />
<strong>'Huge untapped Muslim populations'</strong><br />
There is certainly space for E&Y's estimate of 20% growth for each of the next five years.  <br />
Even
 in countries where Islamic banking has a strong foothold, such as the 
Gulf states and in South East Asia, its share rarely accounts for more 
than one third of the market. <br />
In Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim country, Islamic banking currently has less than 5% market share.<br />
There
 are also huge untapped Muslim populations around the world including 
India, Pakistan and Bangladesh in South Asia; Egypt, Nigeria, Morocco 
and Nigeria in Africa; and a number of the former Soviet Republics.<br />
It is also expected that growth will not just be limited to regions with a high Muslim population.<br />
Last month, the UK issued a £200 million sovereign sukuk or Islamic bond.<br />
Although the amount is small, a fraction of the value issued by Malaysia each year, it was a clear signal of intent. <br />
It
 comes on the back of the Islamic Finance Task Force launched last year 
by the British government with the aim of making London a western hub 
for Islamic finance.<br />
<strong>Challenges ahead</strong><br />
Many of the rapid growth market countries face ongoing economic and political instability. <br />
As
 the era of cheap money ends and the huge monetary stimuli from central 
banks is withdrawn, growth in these regions may slow down, especially in
 the banking sectors.<br />
Islamic finance is also less profitable than conventional banking.<br />
The E&Y report finds that shareholder returns are 20% lower as a result of higher costs and operational inefficiencies.<br />
Islamic banks tend to be much smaller than their conventional counterparts, making it hard to achieve economies of scale. <br />
There
 is also far less standardisation in the products available because of 
different interpretations between banks and jurisdictions of what is 
acceptable under sharia law.<br />
Islamic banking products are also more complex which adds to their cost. <br />
The
 importance of face-to-face relationships means the branch network is 
important, but has resulted in an under-development of phone and 
internet banking.<br />
And, Islamic banks are relatively poor at 
cross-selling with an average of 2.1 products per customer compared to 
4.9 products per customer in conventional banks.<br />
When regulators 
in Qatar acted to prevent banks from offering both Islamic and 
conventional banking products forcing a choice between the two, many 
decided to close their Islamic banking operations in the country.<br />
Islamic
 banks have tremendous scope to keep growing within the niches, 
compatible with sharia law and in certain parts of the world. But, 
unless they face up to these challenges, they might struggle to take the
 conventional banks head on.</div>

Islamic banking: Growing fast but can it be more than a niche market?

For years, Islamic banks have been growing at a double digit pace. Ernst and Young (E&Y), in their latest World Islamic Banking Com...

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06.04

SHARIA COMPLIANT BANKING SERVICES

<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="color: #3e556c; font-family: Tw Cen MT;">Islamic
 Banking has been experiencing extraordinary developments in several 
 islamic countries and Europe. In some countries this sharia compliant 
banking system has been enjoying an average growth-rate of 40.2 percent 
per year from 2007 to 2011. </span>
 <br />
<div align="center" style="margin: 0 15px;">
 <span style="color: #3e556c;">

</span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin: 0 15px;">
 <span style="color: #3e556c; font-family: Tw Cen MT;">All over Europe Islamic banks 
are establishing branches, 
 western banks are offering Sharia-compliant financial services, and 
European governments are trying to outcompete each other in welcoming 
them.</span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin: 0 15px;">
  </div>
<div align="center" style="margin: 0 15px;">

</div>
<div align="justify" style="margin: 0 15px;">
  </div>
<div align="justify" style="margin: 0 15px;">
 <span style="color: #3e556c; font-family: Tw Cen MT;">Sharia Banking or Islamic 
Finance overarching principle  is that all forms of interest are 
forbidden. The Islamic financial model works on the basis of risk 
sharing. The customer and the bank share the risk of any investment on 
agreed terms, and divide any profits between them.

The main categories within Islamic finance are: Ijara, Ijara-wa-iqtina, 
Mudaraba, Murabaha and Musharaka.
 </span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin: 0 15px;">
  </div>
<div align="justify" style="margin: 0 15px;">
 <span style="color: #3e556c; font-family: Tw Cen MT;"><b>Ijara</b> is a leasing agreement whereby the bank buys an item for a customer and then leases it back over a specific period.

</span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin: 0 15px;">
 <span style="color: #3e556c; font-family: Tw Cen MT;"><b>Ijara-wa-Iqtina</b> is a similar arrangement, except that the customer is able to buy the item at the end of the contract.

</span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin: 0 15px;">
 <span style="color: #3e556c; font-family: Tw Cen MT;"><b>Mudaraba</b> offers 
specialist investment by a financial expert in which the bank and the 
customer shares any profits. Customers risks losing their money if the 
investment is unsuccessful, although the bank will not charge a handling
 fee unless it turns a profit.

<b>Murabaha: </b> Islamic banks extend a type of Islamic “credit,” 
called Murabaha, 
 that shifts risk to the borrower.  It is a form of credit which enables
 customers to make a purchase without having to take out an interest 
bearing loan. The bank buys an item and then sells it on to the customer
 on a deferred basis. 
 For example: an Islamic bank granting Murabaha to a customer for a car,
 would purchase this 
 car for the customer for $25,000 and the customer would owe the bank 
$30,000 in a year’s time. 
</span></div>
<div align="justify" style="margin: 0 15px;">
 <span style="color: #3e556c; font-family: Tw Cen MT;"><b>Musharaka</b> is a investment
 partnership in which profit sharing terms are agreed in advance, and 
losses are pegged to the amount invested. 
 Under the ‘diminishing Musharaka’ the Islamic version of a mortgage, 
the bank and the customer purchase the property together. The customer 
must make monthly payments to the bank and pay a monthly rental fee, 
both based on the portion of the purchase price the bank still owns. </span></div>
</div>

SHARIA COMPLIANT BANKING SERVICES

Islamic Banking has been experiencing extraordinary developments in several islamic countries and Europe. In some countries this sharia ...

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05.51

How To Use Eviews 8 for Estimating Regression Models (Koyck) For Panel Data Analysis

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<br />

<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Model koyck</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">1.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">      </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Cara
masukin data ke eviews <a href="http://www.julfahmisalim.com/2013/05/fatin-juara-xfactor-indonesia.html">http://www.julfahmisalim.com/2013/05/fatin-juara-xfactor-indonesia.html</a>,
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ATAU gampangnya, datanya dibikin dulu di
excel lalu tinggal diimport filenya ke eviews. Kalo mau diedit data di
eviewnya, klik aja variabel yg muncul sehabis diimport, ganti nama variabelnya
juga.</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">2.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">      </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Setelah
itu, <i><b>Quick</b></i>, pilih yg <i><b>estimate</b></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l2 level1 lfo3; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -18.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">3.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">      </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nah
masukin di kolom kosong sesuai dgn jenis variabelnya. </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Contoh: </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<i><b><span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Variabel
Y</span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
C <span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Variabel X</span> <span style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">variabel Y (-1)</span></span></b></i></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Misalkan variabel dependent gua= Pds</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Terus variabel independentnya= Ppk</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 14.2pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: 14.15pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nah di kolom eviewsnya, jadi diketik kayak gini</span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; margin-left: 14.2pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
 <tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
  <td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 462.1pt;" valign="top" width="616"><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<i><b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Pds
  C Ppk Pds(-1)</span></b></i></div>
</td>
 </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 14.2pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: 14.15pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Kalo variabel independennya misalkan ada 3 jadi
kayak gini</span></div>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse: collapse; border: none; margin-left: 14.2pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; mso-padding-alt: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-yfti-tbllook: 1184;">
 <tbody>
<tr style="mso-yfti-firstrow: yes; mso-yfti-irow: 0; mso-yfti-lastrow: yes;">
  <td style="border: solid windowtext 1.0pt; mso-border-alt: solid windowtext .5pt; padding: 0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; width: 462.1pt;" valign="top" width="616"><div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt;">Pds
  C Ppk Jpk Ikm Pds(-1)</span></b></div>
</td>
 </tr>
</tbody></table>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 14.2pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: 14.15pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 14.2pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: 14.15pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Nah
hasilnya persis sama kayak gambar di bawah, penaksirannya ikutin aja</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="margin-left: 14.2pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">I.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">     </span></span></span></b><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">METODE
PENELITIAN</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 35.45pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: 21.25pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 35.45pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: 21.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis
autoregressive distributed lag model koyck. Data yang digunakan merupakan data
sekunder dalam bentuk <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">time series</i>
dari tahun 1980-2014. Data yang digunakan hanya sebanyak 35 yang di ambil dari
BPS Indonesia, Kementerian Perdagangan Indonesia, dan Kementerian Pertanian
Indonesia </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 35.45pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: 21.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah
permintaan daging sapi (pds) dan pendapatan perkapita dalam hal ini pendapatan
perkapita masyarakat Indonesia pertahun (ppk).</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 35.45pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: 21.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Alasan pemilihan faktor pendapatan adalah karena
ketika pendapatan masyarakat meningkat, hal tersebut tidak langsung menyebabkan
permintaan daging sapi meningkat, tetapi memerlukan waktu (lag). </span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 35.45pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: 21.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Penelitian ini hanya mencakup pada<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>analisis <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Autoregressive
Distributed Lag </i>model Koyck dalam memodelkan pengaruh pendapatan terhadap
permintaan daging sapi di Indonesia. Sehingga model yang terbentuk adalah</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAi9a1fJHX2c-Bqp_rogSWJGUjZYDqO-YeqRvus3IxwA_-dNvMMFh6cAAF6Env5bcs0fCAdBAsGbBNqIbStFtfZ7D8QLcYJnJ0NEbKlSOfFjzCSSYE5viUCx4_v67kOt3u2icTrZQpdQEU/s1600/rumus.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="24" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAi9a1fJHX2c-Bqp_rogSWJGUjZYDqO-YeqRvus3IxwA_-dNvMMFh6cAAF6Env5bcs0fCAdBAsGbBNqIbStFtfZ7D8QLcYJnJ0NEbKlSOfFjzCSSYE5viUCx4_v67kOt3u2icTrZQpdQEU/s320/rumus.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-left: 35.45pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: 21.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-language: IN; mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpLast" style="margin-left: 35.45pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-align: justify; text-autospace: none; text-indent: 21.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Untuk memudahkan analisis, peneliti menggunakan <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">software</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> 
</span>EVIEWS 8 dan Ms.Excel 2010.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-left: 35.45pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-left: 35.45pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpFirst" style="line-height: 150%; margin-left: 14.2pt; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-align: justify; text-indent: -14.2pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">II.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">  </span></span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 150%;">HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; mso-list: l1 level1 lfo2; text-indent: 0cm;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman";"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">a.<span style="font: 7.0pt "Times New Roman";">   
</span></span></span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Penaksiran
Metode Koyck</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-indent: 14.15pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 35.45pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-indent: 14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Dengan mengasumsikan bahwa Vt telah memenuhi semua
asumsi klasik yang berkenaan dengan faktor gangguan. Maka hasil analisis ini
menjadi:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzgqVte-K9ZU_mkgrJlnAyHf0YcTIvaX27IALOSZkfYQK4YpZCO8X0XWbb-hyKndFBpdyX80g6YhONNL4uM80D_K-oOT_g8UkqtZYU61ZpOeiCuIweXWjoq9G_goy4DQAG7gLuEfxqDa_O/s1600/hasil.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzgqVte-K9ZU_mkgrJlnAyHf0YcTIvaX27IALOSZkfYQK4YpZCO8X0XWbb-hyKndFBpdyX80g6YhONNL4uM80D_K-oOT_g8UkqtZYU61ZpOeiCuIweXWjoq9G_goy4DQAG7gLuEfxqDa_O/s320/hasil.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-fareast-language: IN; mso-no-proof: yes;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Berdasarkan tabel output di atas, diperoleh model
dugaan: </span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Yt=
1,600 + 12,465 Xt + 0,4254 Yt-</span></b><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Model dugaan dapat
dituliskan dalam bentuk persamaan dinamis distribusi lag dugaan dengan cara
sebagai berikut. Berdasarkan persamaan di atas diketahui :</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "cambria math" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Cambria Math";">𝐶</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
= 0,4254</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">               </span>a (1 – c) = 1,600, maka a adalah
2,7845</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">β</span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0
= </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">β</span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">             </span></span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">= 12,465 </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">β</span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">1
=</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
β</span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0 </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">C<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  
</span>= 5,3026</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">β</span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">2
= </span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">β</span><span style="font-size: 7.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-bidi-font-family: "Times New Roman";">0
</span><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">C<sup>2</sup><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">  </span>= 2,2557</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Jadi model lag
dugaannya adalah:</span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Y=
2,7845 + 12,465 X<sub>t </sub>+ 5,3026 X<sub>t-1 </sub>+ 2,2557 X<sub>t-2 </sub>+
...,</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 21.3pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 14.15pt;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 35.45pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-align: justify; text-indent: 14.2pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Bisa diamati bahwa
pengaruh dari lag Y menurun secara geometris dilihat dari persamaan Yt = 1,600
+ 12,465 Xt + 0,4254 Yt-<sub>1. </sub>Diketahui bahwa nilai koefisien dari Y<sub>t</sub>-<sub>1
</sub>bernilai positif yaitu sebesar 0,4254. Nilai 0,4254 berarti bahwa apabila
pendapatan meningkat 1% maka permintaan akan daging sapi akan meningkat 0,4254%</span></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraphCxSpMiddle" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 35.45pt; margin-right: 0cm; margin-top: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Mean lag = 0,4254 : (1 – 0,4254) = 1,74034</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Artinya dampak perubahan pada permintaan daging sapi
(Y) pada periode pertama </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">sebesar 1,74</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif"; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Ma<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">a<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">fkan kalo salah<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">, masih belajar soalnya hehe. <span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">K<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">alo ada yg lebih n<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">gerti, mo<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , "serif";">hon koreksinya </span></span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></div>
</div>

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